2012. "I knew the first two (seasons) were going to

One of the great advantages of fantasy basketball over football is sample size. Eighty-two games versus 16. Six months versus four. Twenty-six weeks versus 16. Two hundred possessions versus 25.Theres plenty of time to revert to the mean. Whether a player is flourishing (Gorgui Dieng) or floundering (Kristaps Porzingis), they have about 78 games or so to get back to normal.But what if a player is coming to grips with a new normal?The NBA posted a particularly dramatic offseason this summer with 10 coaching changes and high-octane free agency ... fueled by an ungodly amount of newly created cap space.Players were placed within new zip codes ... systems ... rotations. Many of the factors that drive fantasy production are driven by chemistry. Sometimes, just a single new element can throw off a players entire fantasy outlook.One should never, ever overreact to the opening week of the NBA season. But it is more illustrative of a players fantasy value than a month of preseason activity.And right now, there are a few players you may need to be just a little concerned about.Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Minnesota Timberwolves2015-16 Player Rater Rank: 7 (13.69 points) 2016-17 Player Rater Rank: 48 (5.03 points)Tom Thibodeau is one of the NBAs finest coaches. A hyper-intense, defense-first maven. A culture transformer. A leader who stresses the little things that dont end up in a box score.And therein lies the problem.Because things that dont end up in box scores dont help us.Thibodeau is a noted fantasy-value serial killer. But in a way, the notation is unwarranted. If youre a selfish offensive player more concerned with getting yours? Thibodeau can chew your numbers up.But if you defend your position and rebound well, you wont have too much to worry about. Just ask Jimmy Butler.Towns is an across-the-board producer. He generates numbers in nooks and crannies (4.3 assists per game, 1.0 3-pointers) that lie beyond the parameters of a post player.But his rebounds per game are decidedly down -- from 10.5 to 6.7. And while were dealing with an astonishingly small sample size, there is one large variable that concerns me.An active, high-minute, fully operational, recently well-paid Gorgui Dieng is a very large variable.Long one of fantasys most underrated players (due to Sam Mitchells inexplicable penchant for giving lesser talents his minutes), Dieng is going predictably nuts under Thibodeau. Because Dieng is Thibodeaus kind of guy.He rebounds. He blocks shots. He protects the rim with aplomb.Towns is 48th on the player rater. Dieng is 12th. Towns is collecting under seven rebounds a game. Dieng is hoarding 11.Its only three games. Yes, Dieng could be celebrating his new four-year, $64 million extension. But if he continues to harness 34.0 minutes per game, he could erase just enough of Towns rebounds and blocks to drive Towns down into a late-first-round valuation.Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors2015-16 Player Rater Rank: 18 (11.29 points) 2016-17 Player Rater Rank: 128 (1.46 points)There was a lot of preseason palaver concerning Kevin Durants siphoning of Stephen Currys production. And while Curry hasnt been quite his league-leading 2015-16 self to date (20th overall), it seems as if he will adjust.Curry produces in many areas. He has several statistical categories he can draw upon for fantasy value.Klay Thompson is another story. Thompsons top-20 2015-16 campaign relied on his elite standing in two areas: points and 3-pointers.(Thompson also shot 87 percent at the free throw line. But he averaged only 2.8 free throw attempts a game. I would argue that Thompsons .425 3-point percentage -- across 8.1 attempts a game -- made his .470 field goal percentage borderline elite.)I never quite understood why there wasnt more concern surrounding Durants effect on Thompson. Thompsons a catch-and-shoot player. Maybe the NBAs best catch-and-shoot player. He doesnt require a high usage rate to deliver value.Thompson just needs to catch and shoot 3-point attempts ... and make them.But if Thompson isnt making his 3-point shots? If hes, say, 3-for-28 from deep over his first four games? Thats a serious fantasy problem. Because shooting about 42 percent from deep is the fulcrum that leverages Thompson into the top 20.The volume isnt that far off. Thompsons 16.5 field goal attempts per game is right up there with his 2015-16 average (17.3 FGA). His 7.0 3-point attempts are within striking distance of last seasons 8.1 (a 14 percent drop-off).So what gives?Thompson is a rhythm guy. A system guy. A player that relies on pace and spacing. By the way, thats a condition for most elite shooting guard production, since so much elite SG play is 3-point-driven.Thompson can be streaky. He can let emotion interfere with his play. Shot makers thrive on flow. Confidence. (Which really means little more than, Yeah, hes a shooting guard.)But when you go from option two on offense to a distant, remote third option? Behind two top-five players? And you have a shooters mentality? And youre the emotional opposite of your combustible power forward (who doesnt need to make shots to create elite value)?It may portend a permanent shift in overall production.Thompsons the clear victim of KD-to-CA. But Thompson isnt going to shoot 11 percent from behind the arc for an entire season. Its just a bad opening week.But I do believe those of you that drove Thompsons average draft position up to 24.9 are going to walk away slightly disappointed.Trailing behind Curry and Durant, Thompson may be more of a fourth-round kind of guy. Thats not bad. But changes in rotation can hurt when youre elite in one to two categories.Kristaps Porzingis, PF, New York Knicks2015-16 Player Rater Rank: 47 (6.90 points) 2016-17 Player Rater Rank: 87 (3.23 points)Of just about any NBA player in fantasy, it would have been easiest to predict an early season dip for Porzingis.New coach. New system. Several new veteran teammates. New point guard. Heightened expectations. (And Porzingis punches the clock in the NBAs toughest place to play given heightened expectations.)Porzingis nadir arrived last night against the high-pace, Mike DAntoni-driven Rockets. He didnt convert a single field goal attempt. He scored three points and sat most of the fourth quarter.The Knicks need to get Porzingis the ball. More explicitly? Derrick Rose needs to get Porzingis the ball. Plain, clear and simple.Porzingis can still block shots (1.8 per game). His 3-point production has increased in both volume and efficiency (1.5 3-pointers on .375 shooting).But Rose is averaging only 2.5 assists per game. I dont know how many of those dimes went to Porzingis, but from watching last nights game? It hasnt been much.I was excited to see how Joakim Noah meshed up front with Porzingis. And Noah has delivered in the assist column to date (5.5 per game).Rose badly needs to find some rhythm with Porzingis in the post.Porzingis was advertised as entering the season with more of a commitment to low-post play. And while his percentage of 3-point attempts has risen (from .274 to .348), his attempts from 3 to 9 feet have dropped (from .184 to .152).In what is supposed to be a sophomore leap year, Porzingis usage rate is regressing, from 22.9 to 18.4 (when its projected to rise to 25.6).Its waaaaay early. The new-look Knicks arent clicking as of yet. Jeff Hornacek is a fine coach. Porzingis is still an All-Star in the making ... with top-20 fantasy upside.But you have to wonder if the Rose experiment at PG isnt going to shave a round off Porzingis season-long value.Andre Drummond, C Detroit Pistons2015-16 Player Rater Rank: 114 (3.19 points) 2016-17 Player Rater Rank: 119 (1.93 points)DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers2015-16 Player Rater Rank: 56 (6.00 points) 2016-17 Player Rater Rank: 204 (-1.21 points)Im not concerned with Drummond. I didnt draft Drummond.Meanwhile, Drummond is leading the league in rebounding (13.6 REB). Jordan (11.3 REB) isnt too far behind.Both players are averaging double-digits in points (12.6 for Drummond, 10.0 for Jordan). Both players are struggling just a little from the field versus their historical output (.429 for Drummond, .571 for Jordan).Drummond is 119th on the player rater. Jordan is 204th.Jordan is dealing with an early-season finger injury. He will start blocking more shots. Jordans elite shot-blocking averages mean he will eventually swat his way into fantasys top 60.Drummond will make a few more shots per game. But because he hasnt displayed a propensity for elite shot-blocking production, Drummonds ceiling is probably in the 80s at best.And Drummonds ADP was 26.6. Jordans ADP was 31.8.If you drafted either of them in the third round? You made a sucker bet. Because their values wont go anywhere near where you predicted as long as they continue to be two of the worst free throw shooters of all time!This has nothing to do with player movement, a new coach or a new system. It has to do with everyone in Fantasyland starting two below-rock-bottom free throw percentages and ignoring them in favor of volume-based stats.Jordans floor rises because hes insulated by his shot-blocking. But Drummonds value doesnt have that kind of protection.Dont say I didnt warn you. Jordan 11 For Sale Cheap . -- Al Jefferson found a groove just in time for the Charlotte Bobcats. Wholesale Jordan Retro 11 . -- Josh Sterk scored once and set up two more as the Oshawa Generals edged the visiting Belleville Bulls 3-2 on Friday in Ontario Hockey League action. http://www.discountairjordan11.com/ . -- Jakob Silfverberg is making himself right at home with the Anaheim Ducks, scoring four goals in his first four games. Air Jordan 11 Retro Cheap . Miller reached right to deflect Mikhail Grabovskis attempt with just over 2 minutes remaining in regulation, and then made two more saves in the shootout Sunday to give the Sabres a 2-1 win over the Washington Capitals. Discount Air Jordan 11 . -- Yogi Ferrell orchestrates pretty much everything in Indianas offence.ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Not getting any younger and confident hes put in place a young foundation capable of turning the Buffalo Bills into a winner, Buddy Nix called this the right time to step down as general manager on Monday. "I think at some point, youve got to step aside and let young guys that are qualified have their shot," Nix said during a hastily called news conference shortly after Bills completed a voluntary minicamp practice. "I never put a timetable on it. I always felt like Id know when it was the right time. "And I think its the right time." The 73-year-old Nix will not be leaving the team entirely. Hell instead move into a newly created role as a special assistant. Nix steps down two weeks after overseeing his fourth draft with the Bills, which the team opened by selecting its quarterback of the future in Florida States EJ Manuel with the 16th pick. And his departure comes with Buffalo in the midst of yet another start-from-scratch overhaul under new coach Doug Marrone. "I feel strongly that the team is on the right course for success," Nix said. "I think the thing that probably Im the most proud of will be the next two or three years. I think weve got a really good young roster. I love our head coach. I think hes a guy whos going to win a lot of games here for a long time." Assistant GM Doug Whaley, entering his fourth season in Buffalo, is expected to take over. Though the Bills did not immediately announce Nixs replacement, the team has spent much of the past year grooming Whaley to succeed Nix. In signing Whaley to a long-term contract extension in February, both Nix and team president Russ Brandon referred to Whaley as someone who will "transition" into the top job "when the time comes." Whaley is a former scout and executive with the Steelers. He was heavily involved in scouting this past year, and also involved in the Bills coaching search in January. On Monday, Brandon declined to say whether Whaley will take over. Brandon would only say that a succession plan is in place, but refused to provide a timetable as to when a new GM would be appointed. The next general manager will become the teams fifth since John Butler was fired during the 2000 season. The lack of continuity has been blamed on the teams struggles. Buffalo has not enjoyed a winning season since going 9-7 in 2004. And it has not made the playoffs in 13 seasons -- the NFLs longest active drought Nixs departurre is not regarded as a surprise.dddddddddddd He had been sidestepping questions about his future in Buffalo for much of the past nine months. On Monday, Nix said he didnt make up his mind until recently. "I already had a flight and was scheduled to go to St. Pete to start on the 2014 draft," Nix said, referring to the teams annual scouting meeting in St. Petersburg, Fla. "And to be honest with you, my energy levels good as its ever been, but I wasnt all excited about that trip." Nix also intends to spend more time with his family, starting with attending his grandsons 9-year-old birthday party this weekend. Nix has 50-plus years of football experience as a coach, scout and executive at both the college and NFL levels. After serving as a Bills scout in the 1990s, he left Buffalo to spend the next seven seasons in the San Diego Chargers front office. Buffalo lured him out of retirement to work as a scout in 2009. The Bills then promoted Nix to the GMs job later that year. He took over for Brandon, who stepped down as general manager to devote more time to the teams business operations. Nix has had mixed results, with the team going 16-32 since he took over. That included consecutive 6-10 finishes the past two seasons, which led to coach Chan Gailey being fired on Dec. 31. Gaileys firing was a setback for Nix. Aside from hiring Gailey, Nix had voiced his support for the coach through much of last season. Nixs vision to rebuild through the draft has taken longer than he expected. Aside from Manuel, hes used first-round picks to select running back C.J. Spiller, defensive tackle Marcell Dareus and cornerback Stephon Gilmore. And Nixs one major foray into free agency has yet to pay dividends. The Bills defensive struggles continued last season despite the high-priced addition of defensive end Mario Williams, who was signed to a six-year $100 million contract in March 2012. "I knew the first two (seasons) were going to be struggles. But we thought we had things in place to win more games (last season)," Nix said. "But we just didnt get it done for whatever reason." Before drafting Manuel last month, Nix had failed to address the teams most important need at quarterback. Nix put his faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick by signing the journeyman to a long-term contract extension after the Bills got off to a surprising 4-2 start in October 2011. Fitzpatrick failed to play to the expectations and was cut this off-season. Wholesale Hoodies NFL Shirts Outlet Jerseys NFL Wholesale Cheap NFL Jerseys Free Shipping Wholesale Jerseys Cheap Cheap NFL Jerseys China Wholesale Jerseys Wholesale NFL Jerseys Cheap NFL Jerseys China Cheap NFL Jerseys ' ' '