SUPPORT » Zack Greinke is one of my favorite baseball players of all time.

Not everyone shares that opinion https://www.thepackersfanshop.com/Dave-Robinson-Jersey , as Greinke has some social anxiety issues and he rubs a lot of people the wrong way; but he’s a fascinating quote-machine and almost certainly one of the most cerebral, and interesting people in baseball. Greinke has always had a deep interest in scouting and Sabermetrics, and in his brief stint with the Brewers he was a fixture in their draft war room. Perhaps my favorite thing Greinke ever did, was to conduct an experiment with his pitching over the course of a few seasons. Greinke has been good for ages, but it was never enough for him to be good — he also wanted a deep understanding of why he was good and how he could get better.For those of you who don’t follow baseball, we know that there are a few things that pitchers have control over and a few things they don’t. That’s a bit of an oversimplification, and modern research has revealed that it’s more like there are some things they control a great deal, and some things they control less — but the point stands, and at the time Greinke did his little experiment he relied on FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching):”I try to get ahead of the count without leaving it run down the middle in a person’s power zone... That helps me not walk guys, and then, when I get two strikes, I try to strike guys out. And that’s how I try to pitch, to keep my FIP as low as possible.”The FIP stats are strikeouts, walks, and home runs, and historically FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself. Greinke’s theory was that by focusing on the elements of FIP, that he could make himself even more efficient than he already was. That’s not how it worked out.Greinke’s FIP did decrease significantly but his ERA didn’t, due to an increased Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). BABIP is usually a fairly random statistic, fluctuating with a few bloop singles or diving catches, but in this case it’s more likely that Greinke’s strategy was having some unforeseen consequences. When you focus on raising strikeouts and limiting walks above all else, hitters are going to know that you will be throwing strikes, and strikes are easier to hit and hit hard. Greinke doesn’t suffer failure well, and he eventually abandoned the experiment, returning to his former approach and repertoire, with extremely great success. FIP is a good statistic for quantifying a pitcher’s production, and it’s not controversial that strikeouts are good for a pitcher, while walks and home runs are bad. So why didn’t Greinke’s strategy work Aaron Jones Jersey , and what does any of this have to do with Aaron Rodgers?FIP and InterceptionsThe problem with pitching to FIP is that FIP isn’t a recipe on how to pitch. FIP measures the good and bad things that happen while you go about pitching as well as you can. Minimizing walks to an absurd extreme will get you hit hard, and trading a few walks to fool a few additional hitters is worth it.In the NFL, throwing an interception is seen as just about the worst thing you can do, and no one throws fewer picks than Aaron Rodgers. However, there is such a thing as being too careful with the ball, and I suspect that Aaron is falling victim to the same kind of thinking as did Zack Greinke. It’s easy enough for a QB go an entire season without a pick by simply throwing the ball directly into the ground on every snap. Your offense won’t be very effective, but it will be “safe,” and Rodgers does a version of this on his many, many throwaways and third-down sacks. Avoiding interceptions should not be an end unto itself. The mark of a great quarterback is the ability to execute all types of plays and use the entire field while limiting mistakes; it is not to take out all possible risks to limit mistakes. When Rodgers was at his best he was still very careful with the ball, but he also made big plays look routine and threw a huge variety of passes. He didn’t throw interceptions because he was insanely accurate and had one of the NFL’s best arms, not because he was a bit of a chicken. Rodgers still rates fairly well in stats like ANY/A that reward a lack of picks, but I suspect this is a bit like Greinke fooling FIP but not ERA.The narc on Rodgers this season is his completion percentage, which is one of the worst in football. Completion percentage isn’t everything, but in this case it is telling. Just as Greinke traded walks for harder hit balls, Rodgers is trading completions for fewer picks, and given the sacks he’s taken, that completion percentage probably understates things.Rodgers has, since 2015, given up a lot of what once made him great. When he holds the ball for a long time we often see it as Rodgers waiting for the big play, but I don’t think that’s right. I think it’s more about ensuring he doesn’t make the big mistake. Rodgers is now defined by that interception streak more than is healthy. He is supposed to be defined by brilliance that just happens to include care of the football as the icing on the cake.An overly careful Aaron is both ineffective and boring to watch, and if he doesn’t realize why interceptions are actually worth avoiding, the Packers dynasty is as good as over. GREEN BAY, Wis. — Jordy Nelson’s NFL career ended in the same place where it began: Lambeau Field.Nelson signed a one-day contract with the Packers on Tuesday and announced his retirement after 11 seasons, 10 of which he spent in Green Bay.More Packers coverageBucks’ Wes Matthews loves Wisconsin, is a Vikings fanPreview: Packers look to slow Vikings’ revitalized run gameTop Tweets: Yelich thanks fans for support after season-ending injuryAmos sparks rebuilt Packers defense in debutPackers to be tested again by familiar foe in Zimmer, Vikings“I’ll be remembered as a Packer,” the 34-year-old wide receiver said. “Obviously I enjoyed my year last year in Oakland. But this is where I started and it’s great to come back and end it that way.”Nelson will be remembered for his speed Kenny Clark Color Rush Jersey , size and chemistry with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who was the starter for Nelson’s entire tenure in Green Bay. The pair won a Super Bowl after the 2010 season, and Nelson was a big part of the 31-25 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, catching nine passes for 140 yards and a touchdown that he called his most cherished memory.“To be able to be there and have that opportunity to score a touchdown there,” Nelson said. “To have that football. My son (Royal) turned 1 that week. … I still remember being down on the field with him and my wife.”Nelson ranks third in Packers history in receptions (550), fifth in receiving yards (7,848), second in touchdown catches (69) and third in 100-yard receiving games (25). He is the only player in franchise history to record three seasons with 13-plus touchdown receptions. Nelson and Sterling Sharpe are the only Packers players to have three straight seasons with 85 catches or more.“When him and Aaron really started getting on the whole back-shoulder thing, it was just kind of an unstoppable thing,” Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said. “They kind of would toy with opponents.”The Packers drafted Nelson in the second round in 2008 out of Kansas State. He emerged as Rodgers’ favorite target in the 2011 season following that Super Bowl triumph, with 15 touchdown catches on a team that went 15-1.“For me, keeping it simple is what did it,” he said. “There wasn’t much extra stuff. Even in my last year (in Green Bay) when guys tried to convince me to celebrate, it was awkward.”Nelson missed the 2015 season with a torn ACL. He returned in 2016 and had 97 catches for 1,257 yards and a league-best 14 touchdowns, earning Comeback Player of the Year honors.But he struggled in 2017, when Rodgers was limited to seven games because of injury, and the Packers released him in the offseason.Nelson said there were teams interested in his services this season. He even visited with the Seahawks. But he said he didn’t want to move his family around the country to extend his career, and he said getting his body ready for game day was becoming more difficult.Instead, he’ll return to his home state of Kansas with his wife, Emily, and their three children. He plans to build a new house and has been helping his brother on the family farm.“We enjoyed it to the fullest,” Nelson said. “Made a lot of friendships, a lot of memories. My family’s enjoyed it. It’s been good.”